Pangea
07-16-2009, 02:44 PM
he InterSolar Munich trade show is the world’s largest solartechnology trade show. This year, 1,400 exhibitors participated –320more exhibitors than the 1,080 in 2008. There were 2,000representatives from the industry and 22 symposiums took place. Thecrowd of 60,000 onlookers were mostly interested in the solar energyexhibitions and information provided in the symposiums. We interviewedMarkus Elsaesser, President of Solar Promotions, a firm that promotesand organizes solar technology trade shows. He hopes to gain a betterunderstanding of the generated appeal of this trade show, in spite ofthe current economic crisis worldwide.
Epoch Times (ET): Why are so many people interested in solar energy, and why are they attending this show?
Markus Elsaesser (ME):InterSolar is a global trade show. This show is the largest of suchshows worldwide, and is an international trade show. Every secondexhibitor is a foreign company. From the beginning of our firm’sventure, we had hopes that it would become the largest internationaltrade show, attracting visitors and exhibitors from differentcountries.
This is definitely the place to come to learnabout other markets. We are not only interested in the German market,but also other European markets, as well as markets throughout theworld. One can exchange thoughts, make sales connections and geteducated about research programs from any country. We believe that ourcommitment to be an international exhibitor is the main reason for thepopularity of this trade show.
We have representatives inmany countries. We also have a presence in China, with a representativein Beijing. He is the contact point for InterSolar in China, and at thesame time brings awareness about the trade show to China. We are tryingto position Intersolar worldwide, and I think we are well positionedwhen it comes to international trade shows.
Secondly, marketgrowth in Germany and in Europe is highly positive. Generally, we havehad a double-digit growth rate every year. Also, our solar branchesearn quite well, that is, Photovoltaic and Solarthermie account forabout 9 million Euros annually. We employ 75,000 people in Germanyalone. These are factors that contribute to the increasing interest inour product.
ET: At this time, the globaleconomy is developing at a slower rate than in previous years. How doesthe current global crisis affect the trade show?
ME:If we look at the numbers, i.e., our growth rate, we don't see thecrisis affecting InterSolar. The growth rates are out of this world.But, if one looks more or less behind the scenes, then one can see thatthere is some evidence that the economic crisis affects our business.It has become more difficult for companies to finance larger projects.
ET: Did the global economic crisis lead to a slump in demand by customers?
ME:Over the past year, many large contracts were negotiated. Today, theworld is settled with over capacity in the market. The demand wasalways higher than the supply, but that has changed. Today, we havemore supply and less demand. In Germany, this has resulted in a 15 to16 percent price reduction, compared to last year, for the customers ofsolar and photovoltaic systems. This is quite a considerable pricereduction. This is the reason why the products are more attractive thanever to the customer, and it is more attractive to invest in solarpower plants. Everyone who agrees to install a facility is guaranteed areimbursement for the amount of solar electricity produced. Thereimbursement amounts to an additional nine percent in reduced cost,which does not include the aforementioned 15 to 16 percent pricereduction. This means that the annual rate of return is higher thanever before.
ET: This means that the demand would be boosted.
ME:We predict that the companies will do quite well during this year'sthird and fourth quarter. Therefore, the organizations and we assumethe installation capacity will equal that from last year. And it wasrather high last year.
ET: I heard that they have developed new techniquesin America's Silicon Valley [in northern California], that result ineven greater cost savings to the industry. Will you exhibit these newdevelopments during this trade show?
ME: Yes,that is the case. Every year, this trade show is a great venue to bringnew technological advancements to the customer and the media. Duringthe past few days alone, there were hundreds of new technologicaladvancements.
At this time, the talk is about reduction inproduction costs and this is, as you have mentioned, where SiliconValley is making great advances concerning Duennschicht [thin filmtechnology] and materials saving technologies. [Duennschicht is “thinfilm” technology. In its application to solar technology, it refers tothe development of a lighter, thinner solar panel that contains lesspolysilicon. One disadvantage is that it is currently not as efficientat converting solar energy as the traditional silicon panels thatcurrently dominate the market.] But they [thin film panels] arecapturing the market and are taking an even greater market share. Butcompared to conventional silicon technologies, they are still in theminority. Market share is still rather modest, but is steadilyincreasing. And this is a technology that is not only aggressivelyadvanced in the USA, but is also making inroads in Europe and China.There are many sales representatives. "Grid parity" is alreadyanticipated for 2012. [i.e., photovoltaic electricity — solar powerelectricity — will be cost-competitive with conventional energy.]
ET:It was the same scenario with computer sales. In the beginning,computers were very expensive and not everyone could afford one. Butthen, suddenly the prices plummeted. Do you think that solar energysystem prices will also come down in the near future, so that morepeople and most households can afford it?
ME:Yes, I believe this would be the case. The prices have already shown asteep decline. We saw price reductions of between 5 and 8 percent overthe past years. At this time we have a special situation. Suddenly, wesee price reductions of between 15 and 16 percent. But, the pricereduction tendency has been going on for years. Because of larger salesand new technologies, the prices saw a steady decline.
Presently, the so-called "grid parity" is of great importance in thesolar energy industry. This is the point in time where the price forthe solar-generated electricity for the customer is the same price forthe electricity received today through the power outlet. The pricedifference is no longer that steep. In Germany we expect solar energyto be even with conventional energy by 2012 or 2013, as the price ofone rises and the price of the other experiences a reduction.
The price of solar energy has been decreasing about five percent peryear and as mentioned earlier, this year it decreased by 15 to 16percent. That means that the curves will meet at one time or anotherand will be even with one another. Then, solar energy will be anattractive alternative for everyone. Everyone could then afford a solarelectricity system and have it installed on the roof. In areas orcountries with higher incidences of solar radiation than in Germany,the time of parity will arrive much earlier. At the moment, governmentsupport is still needed; at least this is how it is in Germany. Forexample, in China, the conditions are not quite as good. But, there areother countries that are better off, and as long as one has a marketpresence, the market will allow for increased popularity.
ET: What, in your opinion, will be the portion of solar energy in the total energy consumption picture in the future?
ME:At the moment solar energy is about one percent of all energygeneration. But, one needs to consider that the technique of industrialproduction of solar energy is relatively new and has not been availablefor too long of a time. Actually, one could say that it was not reallyavailable before 1999/2000, when the laws about renewable energy wereenacted and such energy system installations became more attractive.After that, the industry invested increasingly more in buildingfactories and capacity. When considered, this is a relatively shorttime since this industry began to develop, and yet has achieved onepercent of solar parity. Now, the first step is there and theproduction capacity is there too.
Installation experts needto be trained, and now we have reached a point in time when developmentwill accelerate. Studies suggest that by 2020 the market penetrationwill reach about seven percent, given that the basic conditions remainthe same. It takes some time for the market to catch up.
Forexample, if China would enact a renewable energy law, similar to whatwe have in Germany, then the installation crew and the planners have tobe trained. These people need the know-how and this just takes time.Therefore, it is important to begin earlier rather than later, becauseit takes several years before one reaches the point of profitability.Germany is still the number one place for new installations.
ET: Can you compare the use of solar energy between Germany and other European countries?
ME:For many years, Germany was in first place. Last year, Spain passedGermany, but this year, Germany was once again in first place. Thereason for this is that Spain implemented the same model as Germany.However, they made a mistake. The fees were much too high and they didnot consider the higher availability of solar radiation. The rate ofreturn in Spain was astronomical, which resulted in companies moving toSpain and installing many large systems. These facilities wereinstalled in open spaces, and they were really large facilities. Inresponse, the Spanish government put brakes on this development,because it just went too fast.
Approximately 2,600 megawatthad been installed. This year, Spain will allow installation of 500megawatts in total capacity. Seen from a global perspective, this isnot bad. This is about the amount reached in the USA last year. InItaly, the installation was around 200 to 300 megawatts. Greece andFrance also seem to have good conditions. It is happening that more andmore countries are getting into the game. But, this year, Germany willprobably again be number one.
ET: Thank you for the interview.
More... (http://www.renewableenergyconferences.com/index.php?do=viewarticle&artid=66)
Epoch Times (ET): Why are so many people interested in solar energy, and why are they attending this show?
Markus Elsaesser (ME):InterSolar is a global trade show. This show is the largest of suchshows worldwide, and is an international trade show. Every secondexhibitor is a foreign company. From the beginning of our firm’sventure, we had hopes that it would become the largest internationaltrade show, attracting visitors and exhibitors from differentcountries.
This is definitely the place to come to learnabout other markets. We are not only interested in the German market,but also other European markets, as well as markets throughout theworld. One can exchange thoughts, make sales connections and geteducated about research programs from any country. We believe that ourcommitment to be an international exhibitor is the main reason for thepopularity of this trade show.
We have representatives inmany countries. We also have a presence in China, with a representativein Beijing. He is the contact point for InterSolar in China, and at thesame time brings awareness about the trade show to China. We are tryingto position Intersolar worldwide, and I think we are well positionedwhen it comes to international trade shows.
Secondly, marketgrowth in Germany and in Europe is highly positive. Generally, we havehad a double-digit growth rate every year. Also, our solar branchesearn quite well, that is, Photovoltaic and Solarthermie account forabout 9 million Euros annually. We employ 75,000 people in Germanyalone. These are factors that contribute to the increasing interest inour product.
ET: At this time, the globaleconomy is developing at a slower rate than in previous years. How doesthe current global crisis affect the trade show?
ME:If we look at the numbers, i.e., our growth rate, we don't see thecrisis affecting InterSolar. The growth rates are out of this world.But, if one looks more or less behind the scenes, then one can see thatthere is some evidence that the economic crisis affects our business.It has become more difficult for companies to finance larger projects.
ET: Did the global economic crisis lead to a slump in demand by customers?
ME:Over the past year, many large contracts were negotiated. Today, theworld is settled with over capacity in the market. The demand wasalways higher than the supply, but that has changed. Today, we havemore supply and less demand. In Germany, this has resulted in a 15 to16 percent price reduction, compared to last year, for the customers ofsolar and photovoltaic systems. This is quite a considerable pricereduction. This is the reason why the products are more attractive thanever to the customer, and it is more attractive to invest in solarpower plants. Everyone who agrees to install a facility is guaranteed areimbursement for the amount of solar electricity produced. Thereimbursement amounts to an additional nine percent in reduced cost,which does not include the aforementioned 15 to 16 percent pricereduction. This means that the annual rate of return is higher thanever before.
ET: This means that the demand would be boosted.
ME:We predict that the companies will do quite well during this year'sthird and fourth quarter. Therefore, the organizations and we assumethe installation capacity will equal that from last year. And it wasrather high last year.
ET: I heard that they have developed new techniquesin America's Silicon Valley [in northern California], that result ineven greater cost savings to the industry. Will you exhibit these newdevelopments during this trade show?
ME: Yes,that is the case. Every year, this trade show is a great venue to bringnew technological advancements to the customer and the media. Duringthe past few days alone, there were hundreds of new technologicaladvancements.
At this time, the talk is about reduction inproduction costs and this is, as you have mentioned, where SiliconValley is making great advances concerning Duennschicht [thin filmtechnology] and materials saving technologies. [Duennschicht is “thinfilm” technology. In its application to solar technology, it refers tothe development of a lighter, thinner solar panel that contains lesspolysilicon. One disadvantage is that it is currently not as efficientat converting solar energy as the traditional silicon panels thatcurrently dominate the market.] But they [thin film panels] arecapturing the market and are taking an even greater market share. Butcompared to conventional silicon technologies, they are still in theminority. Market share is still rather modest, but is steadilyincreasing. And this is a technology that is not only aggressivelyadvanced in the USA, but is also making inroads in Europe and China.There are many sales representatives. "Grid parity" is alreadyanticipated for 2012. [i.e., photovoltaic electricity — solar powerelectricity — will be cost-competitive with conventional energy.]
ET:It was the same scenario with computer sales. In the beginning,computers were very expensive and not everyone could afford one. Butthen, suddenly the prices plummeted. Do you think that solar energysystem prices will also come down in the near future, so that morepeople and most households can afford it?
ME:Yes, I believe this would be the case. The prices have already shown asteep decline. We saw price reductions of between 5 and 8 percent overthe past years. At this time we have a special situation. Suddenly, wesee price reductions of between 15 and 16 percent. But, the pricereduction tendency has been going on for years. Because of larger salesand new technologies, the prices saw a steady decline.
Presently, the so-called "grid parity" is of great importance in thesolar energy industry. This is the point in time where the price forthe solar-generated electricity for the customer is the same price forthe electricity received today through the power outlet. The pricedifference is no longer that steep. In Germany we expect solar energyto be even with conventional energy by 2012 or 2013, as the price ofone rises and the price of the other experiences a reduction.
The price of solar energy has been decreasing about five percent peryear and as mentioned earlier, this year it decreased by 15 to 16percent. That means that the curves will meet at one time or anotherand will be even with one another. Then, solar energy will be anattractive alternative for everyone. Everyone could then afford a solarelectricity system and have it installed on the roof. In areas orcountries with higher incidences of solar radiation than in Germany,the time of parity will arrive much earlier. At the moment, governmentsupport is still needed; at least this is how it is in Germany. Forexample, in China, the conditions are not quite as good. But, there areother countries that are better off, and as long as one has a marketpresence, the market will allow for increased popularity.
ET: What, in your opinion, will be the portion of solar energy in the total energy consumption picture in the future?
ME:At the moment solar energy is about one percent of all energygeneration. But, one needs to consider that the technique of industrialproduction of solar energy is relatively new and has not been availablefor too long of a time. Actually, one could say that it was not reallyavailable before 1999/2000, when the laws about renewable energy wereenacted and such energy system installations became more attractive.After that, the industry invested increasingly more in buildingfactories and capacity. When considered, this is a relatively shorttime since this industry began to develop, and yet has achieved onepercent of solar parity. Now, the first step is there and theproduction capacity is there too.
Installation experts needto be trained, and now we have reached a point in time when developmentwill accelerate. Studies suggest that by 2020 the market penetrationwill reach about seven percent, given that the basic conditions remainthe same. It takes some time for the market to catch up.
Forexample, if China would enact a renewable energy law, similar to whatwe have in Germany, then the installation crew and the planners have tobe trained. These people need the know-how and this just takes time.Therefore, it is important to begin earlier rather than later, becauseit takes several years before one reaches the point of profitability.Germany is still the number one place for new installations.
ET: Can you compare the use of solar energy between Germany and other European countries?
ME:For many years, Germany was in first place. Last year, Spain passedGermany, but this year, Germany was once again in first place. Thereason for this is that Spain implemented the same model as Germany.However, they made a mistake. The fees were much too high and they didnot consider the higher availability of solar radiation. The rate ofreturn in Spain was astronomical, which resulted in companies moving toSpain and installing many large systems. These facilities wereinstalled in open spaces, and they were really large facilities. Inresponse, the Spanish government put brakes on this development,because it just went too fast.
Approximately 2,600 megawatthad been installed. This year, Spain will allow installation of 500megawatts in total capacity. Seen from a global perspective, this isnot bad. This is about the amount reached in the USA last year. InItaly, the installation was around 200 to 300 megawatts. Greece andFrance also seem to have good conditions. It is happening that more andmore countries are getting into the game. But, this year, Germany willprobably again be number one.
ET: Thank you for the interview.
More... (http://www.renewableenergyconferences.com/index.php?do=viewarticle&artid=66)